A scatter diagram plots paired data as points, to investigate whether a relationship exists between two variables.
01 — Explanation
How do I recognise positive, negative and zero correlation?
| Pattern | Type | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Points rise left to right | Positive correlation | As increases, tends to increase |
| Points fall left to right | Negative correlation | As increases, tends to decrease |
| No visible pattern | Zero (no) correlation | No relationship between and |
Zero correlation means the points are scattered with no consistent upward or downward trend at all — this is different from the points forming a tight cluster or a curve; a scatter diagram can show a clear pattern that still isn't a straight-line trend, in which case describing it simply as "no correlation" would understate what the diagram actually shows.
02 — Explanation
How do I draw a line of best fit?
A line of best fit is a single straight line, drawn by eye with a ruler, that follows the overall trend, extends across the full range of the data, and has a roughly even scatter of points above and below it along its whole length.
Common mistake
joining the points dot-to-dot like a line graph. A line of best fit is one straight line through the general trend, never a zig-zag through every point — it does not need to pass through any of the plotted points exactly.
03 — Explanation
How do I use my line of best fit to estimate values?
Reading off the line lets you estimate a value within the data range (interpolation).
Worked example. A scatter diagram compares hours of sunshine and ice cream sales, rising from bottom-left to top-right. (a) State the correlation. (b) Using the line of best fit through and , estimate sales at hours of sunshine.
(a) Points rising left to right positive correlation.
(b) hours is exactly halfway between and : .
Exam tip
estimates are only reliable within the range of the original data. Reading the line far beyond the plotted points (extrapolation) may not be valid, since there's no guarantee the same trend continues outside the range that was actually measured.
04 — Explanation
How do I find the equation of a line of best fit?
Once two points on the line of best fit are identified (they don't need to be actual data points — any two points the line passes through will do), the equation can be found the same way as for any straight line, using .
Worked example. Using the same line of best fit through and , find its equation, and use it to estimate sales at hours of sunshine.
At : . Since hours lies just beyond the original data's range (up to hours), this estimate is an extrapolation and should be treated with more caution than the earlier estimate at hours.
Common mistake
treating every reading taken from a line of best fit as equally reliable. A value read from within the plotted data range is a reasonably safe interpolation; a value read from beyond it is an extrapolation, and should be flagged as less certain if the question asks for comment on reliability.