01 — Explanation
How do I calculate a basic probability?
When outcomes are equally likely:
Example: a bag has 50 marbles, 20 of which are blue: . Probabilities can be given as a fraction, decimal or percentage, and always lie between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain).
02 — Explanation
How do I use the fact that probabilities sum to 1?
The complement rule, , lets you find "not" probabilities instantly: if , then . More generally, if a spinner's outcomes have probabilities that must sum to 1 and two are unknown, set up and solve a simple equation for them — a common Grade 2 skill.
03 — Explanation
How do I find a probability from a two-way table or Venn diagram?
In a two-way table, the grand total is the denominator for an ordinary probability; but when a question says "given that...", the denominator changes to just the row or column total named in the condition — not the grand total.
Example: of 17 people over 25, 12 drive to work. Given a person is over 25, .
In a Venn diagram, fill in the intersection first when building one from a word problem, then work outward — this prevents double-counting. A probability is then (elements in the region) ÷ (total in the universal set).
04 — Explanation
How do I use a tree diagram for independent events, and find "at least one"?
Multiply along the branches for a specific sequence: . For "at least one" questions, it's almost always faster to find and subtract from 1, rather than adding up every successful branch separately.
Common Mistake
finding an expected frequency by dividing trials by probability instead of multiplying. If over 500 trials, think of it as "30% of 500": .
05 — Worked example
Worked exam-style question
The probability a school bus is late is on any given day, independently from day to day. Find the probability it is late on at least one of Monday and Tuesday.
- .
- .
- .
Answer: . Calculating four separate "late/not late" branches and adding the three that contain at least one "late" would reach the same answer, but the complement method above is faster and less error-prone.
06 — Explanation
How do I distinguish theoretical probability from relative frequency?
Theoretical probability is calculated by reasoning alone (a fair coin landing heads is ); relative frequency is an estimate from real trials, . As the number of trials grows, relative frequency tends to settle closer to the true theoretical probability — this is why a question might ask you to compare a small experiment's results with the "expected" value from theory.